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السلام عليكم

يوم 2011/12/20

AUDUSD Analysis.
AUDUSD stays in a downward price channel on 4-hour chart, and remains in downtrend from 1.0378. As long as the channel resistance holds, downtrend could be expected to resume, and another fall towards 0.9663 is still possible. Key resistance is now at 1.0026, a break above this level will indicate that lengthier consolidation of downtrend is underway, then bounce to 1.0100 area could be seen.
 
USDCHF Analysis.
USDCHF is in uptrend from 0.8569, the fall from 0.9546 is treated as consolidation of uptrend. Key support is at the lower border of the price channel on 4-hour chart, as long as the channel support holds, we’d expect uptrend to resume, and another rise towards 1.0000 is possible. Key resistance is at 0.9546, a break above this level could signal resumption of uptrend.
 
EURUSD Analysis.
No changed in our view, EURUSD is forming a cycle bottom at 1.2946 on 4-hour chart, and the rise is treated as consolidation of downtrend from 1.3546. Another fall towards 1.2500 is still possible after consolidation, and a breakdown below 1.2946 could signal resumption of downtrend.
 
السلام عليكم

يوم 2011/12/23

USD/CHF dipped slightly during the Thursday session as the stock markets around the world were generally positive. The pair did bounce back though, and is forming a third hammer in a row on the daily chart. Although the time of year makes most moves suspect, it is worth noticing three hammers in a row at such an obvious support level as 0.93, and as such we still prefer to buy this pair, and think that we go much higher next year.
 
EUR/USD rose again during the session on Thursday as the “risk on” move came back into the markets in general. The stock markets gained, and the optimism increased during the session judging by the rise in such places as Paris, Frankfort, New York, and London. However, the gains were given back later in the session and the daily candle formed was a shooting star, the second one in a row.

The pair currently sits on a massive support zone at 1.30 that is suspected to be at least 100 pips thick. The 1.29 level looks like the mark that the pair will have to break below in order for massive selling to ensue, something that many people have been expecting for a very long time in this pair, but have yet to see. The situation in Europe is dire, and the currency simply refuses to die at this point. There are many traders out there calling for the currency to fall precipitously from here, but it has yet to happen.

There are many different theories as to why, but the truth is that the only thing that matters at the end of the day is that it hasn’t fallen. The level is far too strong at this point to be ignored, and the lack of volume at this time of year puts a lot of doubt on the idea of the market collapsing from this point. However, the bias must certainly be to the downside at this point.

We have been selling rallies in this pair and doing quite well by it. The same strategy will be used by us going forward, and we will not hesitate to sell every time this pair rises in the near future. The situation in Europe simply is far too complex for a quick fix, and the market will more than likely continue to punish the Euro over time. Because of this, we are willing to sell rallies going forward, and would get extremely aggressive to the short side if the daily charts can show a close below the 1.29 level.
 
GBP/USD rose and then fell again on Thursday as the 1.57 level held the market down again. The pair looks likely to stay in the 1.57 – 1.55 range for the short-term as the levels simply cannot be broken. With the volume almost disappearing over the next few sessions, we are very unlikely to see a serious move upwards from here that would take massive buying. We are sellers if this pair can break below the 1.5635 level. Other than that – we have no real interest in trading this pair.
 
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